Hot and dry: Local drought part of national calamity

by David M. Johnson

As one gets older, the years are remembered by milestones. There are the weddings, the deaths and the births, but usually the weather plays a major factor in how one year stands out compared to another. Aside from the predictions of the Mayans and Nostradamus, the year 2012 will also be remembered for its drought. The year is barely half over and it already has produced a weather phenomenon that rivals some of the worst that Mother Nature is famous for.
The National Weather Service and the U.S. Drought Monitor have announced that the present drought being experienced by almost 60 percent of the United States is now worse than the drought of 1988 and is being compared to the drought of 1956 and even the droughts of the Dust Bowl era in the 1930s. Huge swaths of the Southern to Central Rockies, the Central Plains states and the Ohio Valley are, as declared by the National Climate Data, experiencing moderate to extreme drought.
This year’s drought, especially in Iowa and Allamakee County, started last year. Normally, fall rains replenish soil moisture,  but last fall was the driest reported in 35 years. This past June was the third driest month in 118 years, according to records. The forecast is dry and predicts high temperatures much above normal to last at least through the month of October.

HIT HARDEST
Everyone seems to be impacted by this drought in some way, but there is one segment of the population that is being battered more than others, the farm and ranch community. Last year, the nation observed Texas ranchers selling off their herds of cattle and using valuable winter hay rations or purchasing hay to feed what remnant of cattle they still had because of a crippling drought that was statewide. Today, the misery shared by the hundreds of ranchers in Texas is now slamming the breadbasket of the world.
An average of 40 percent of the corn planted in the leading 18 corn-producing states is reported to be in poor to very poor condition. This is compared to just 11 percent last year. According to reports, there is the possible scenario that the state of Indiana might have zero production if this drought continues. In Nebraska, Iowa and other states with large cattle herds, and where it has been extremely dry, cattle are being fed hay as the herds no longer venture out to the pastures to graze because there is nothing there. Most of the pastures in Iowa are designated as pretty much nonexistent, as they have wilted and disappeared because of the double whammy of no rain and record high temperatures.
Some farmers in Colorado have cut their three-foot-high corn in June and have baled it, believing they may salvage something out of nothing. Corn is being chopped now as there has been little development of the plant with no water and too much heat inhibiting that development. Possible nitrate concentrations and moisture content in the plant are concerns that challenge producers as they try to salvage their crops.
Farmers with sorghum planted in their acreage are witnessing some bright spots, as this crop tolerates the heat and lack of moisture more readily than corn and beans. Dairy production is reported as being down as much as 25 to 50 percent in herds that are overcome with the stifling heat. There is the threat of dairy herds being thinned if there is not available hay, silage and corn and/or because the costs of purchasing that food to maintain production at profitable levels make it prohibitive. As one Illinois crop biologist put it, “It’s like farming in Hell.”
Food prices jumped 3.7 percent last year, and this year beef in the grocery store is predicted to jump at least four percent with pork, poultry and dairy with lesser increases. The nation’s depressed trade deficit would be much worse if not for an abundance of agricultural goods going overseas. A higher deficit is being forecasted because of the drought’s influence on depressing the nation’s crop yields, including corn, which is 80 percent of the ag goods sent overseas. If corn yields are depressed to levels of 50 percent or less, as predicted by some analysts, political and economic experts are foreseeing food riots in third world nations as witnessed two years ago when corn prices reached record levels.

A MORE LOCAL LEVEL
What about Iowa and Allamakee County? How bad is it? According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, which employs statistics from the Palmer Drought Index plus figures from the U.S. Weather Service, Waukon has been in a precipitation deficit since August of last year. For instance, the local area has had deficits of precipitation of 3.43 inches as of April 1, 5.16 inches as of May 15, and 4.79 inches as of June 1.
In northeast Iowa, since the beginning of this year, there has been a precipitation deficit of four to seven inches, four to 11 inches since August of 2011 to July 24 of this year. Allamakee County is still listed in a severe drought pattern, even after some locations in the county received three to four inches of rain Wednesday, July 18 and rain also fell over this past weekend. Also within the county, 95 percent of the topsoil moisture is rated very short, subsoil is moisture rated 64 percent short.
There are still some local farmers who not only are still getting their hands dirty on the farm, still sweating and roasting in this hot and dry weather, but were doing the same during the 1988 and the 1956 droughts. Waukon farmer Francis Stortz remembers more of the 1936 drought than the 1956 drought. “I was only five in ’36, but I remember my dad only getting about seven loads of loose hay, there was no or very little alfalfa so there was not much hay to speak of,” recalls this local farmer. “I think this year’s drought is about the same as ’88, I am feeding hay now to my beef cows, the pasture they are in is burnt up. ’88 was bad, we had rented some ground and planted after the middle of May, the corn didn’t take root and there was not enough rain to activate the spray on the corn that was up.”
In 1988, Stortz saw some corn fields yielding only 60 bushels to the acre, but on average, about 90 to 100 bushels to the acre. As for 1956, this 81-year-old farmer recalls that he was just struggling in getting started in farming so it was just one more obstacle. “It happens every so often, just like the price of corn, it can be bad or it can be good,” observed Stortz.
Lansing farmer Bob Leppert has also farmed during the droughts of the 1950s, the drought of 1988, and now is getting a taste of this year’s drought. “I was getting started in farming in the 1950s but the drought then did not really stick out,” remembers this 79-year-old farmer. He feels the corn looks to be in better shape this year than in ’88 and the hay crop is graded as fair.
“If you are going to farm, you have to get accustomed to this type of weather, it is going to happen,” said Leppert, adding, “This can change overnight, I have had corn only three-and-a-half feet tall, it tasseled, and then the rain came. I did not get a great crop but got enough to get by.” Although younger farmers are stressed by this year’s weather, the older farmers that have pretty much seen everything are more philosophical and less critical, knowing there is always tomorrow.

HISTORIC CYCLES
This country is not the only one being pummeled by a drought; other areas of the world are facing some of the same problems. For instance, North and South Korea are experiencing their worst drought in 100 years. These conditions will persist in this county, state, and the world, being repeated over the decades. Scientists are unsuccessful in finding conclusive reasons for droughts but have seen a correlation between droughts and high sunspot activity, which occurs every 20 to 22 years. This year, sunspot activity has been extremely active. And for those that point to man-made global warming, one better look at the past of mankind.
Archaeologists have been perplexed as to why the Mayan civilization disappeared around 1000 A.D. and the pyramid building of the Egyptians ceased abruptly some 3500 years ago. After examining soil samples on the bottom of lakes and river beds, and recovered ice core samples from the poles, it is believed that drought brought down these prominent civilizations.
Huge reservoirs were found near the remains of Mayan cities, which were not enough to assist the Mayans. Scientists were able to deduct that decades-long drought destroyed this civilization. In Egypt, it was so bad, that deciphered hieroglyphics describe where adults ate their children in order to survive. There, too, a decades-long drought devastated the Egyptian culture.
When talking about past droughts, this drought is compared to the 1988, 1956, 1936 and the 1934 droughts. The 1988 drought encompassed only 36 percent of the country compared to almost 60 percent today. The 2012 drought has already had four extensive heat waves, which did not happen in 1988. This writer remembers that in 1988, because there was no dew because of lack of moisture, one could start baling hay by 8:30 in the morning and still bale after dark at 10 in the evening. There were consecutive 100-degree days, but they were less than a week in length.
The dryness of 1988 began in the fall of 1987 and the severity of the drought continued through 1989. Some meteorologists, through their research, had to go all the way back to the consecutive droughts of 1864 and 1865 to compare to anything like the back-to-back ’88 and ’89 droughts that plagued farmers in the tri-state region.
The year 1956 started warm. In Iowa, temperatures were in the mid-60s as early as January 5. The drought, which was bad that year and covered more territory in the U.S., some 58 percent compared to 55 percent for today’s drought, actually began in 1954 and became severe in 1956. This writer’s oldest brother remembers our dad planting Sudan grass to supplement the hay shortage, but when mowed it dried down to nothing of any value.
The 1934 and 1936 droughts are considered the “granddaddies of droughts” within the last 100 years. From 1931 to 1939, much of the United States experienced drought, this seven-year period being the hottest and driest period of drought in the last 300 years, according to records. In 1934, the heat began in April with 80-degree temperatures. It was the hottest May on record with the heat continuing through the summer. Keokuk recorded the state’s record high temperature, 118 degrees July 20.
The year 1936 was considered the hottest summer on record with the hottest July on record. July 13, the average high temperature was 113 degrees in Iowa with the state record of 15 consecutive days of triple-digit temperatures. The year 1934 was next with eight consecutive days of triple-digit temperatures. Eleven states have all-time record high temperatures being recorded in July of 1936. Remember, air conditioning was something of the future and many people did not have the luxury of fans at that time. Local county farmers would cut down trees during this time period, letting their cows feed off the leaves as there was no pasture or other feed available. Because of this prolonged dry and hot period, the Dust Bowl was spawned and lasted during much of this period, adding agony to a people feeling the onslaught of drought and the Great Depression.

Today's forecast does not look good for rain or much of a break in the temperatures. But, this is not the first time this has happened and it will not be the last. Our fathers and mothers, and their parents and their parents have seen it just as bad if not worse and have persevered. This is Iowa, wait a minute and the weather will change.